Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Who will Win the Oscars?

The Oscars are a few days away and many must be wondering who will win the Oscars. After having followed all precursors, we have a better picture of what the Oscars may look like come February 24. The following are Dave and Francisco's predictions for each category.
Best Picture
War Horse
The Artist
The Descendants
The Tree of Life
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Francisco's pick-The Artist-No other film has won as many awards as this film and with the BAFTA, The PGA, and the Golden Globe, The Artist looks unstoppable. Its biggest competitor is-The Descendants  

David's Pick- "The Artist"- While I firmly believe that the "Tree of Life" or "Hugo" merit this award more than "The Artist," there is no doubt that the charming black and white critic darling and crowd- pleaser carries all the momentum. BAFTA, PGA, DGA, Golden Globe, and any other awards ceremony you can think of. This film is practically a lock at this point. 
It's biggest competitor- "The Descendants" because it is likely the only other best picture nominee that will win more than one award. 
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Francisco's Pick-Meryl Streep-It's really a difficult pick because Viola Davis won the SAG. However with a BAFTA and a Golden Globe, Streep has a huge chance of winning the Oscars. Let us not forget 2007 when Julie Christie won the SAG but ended up losing the to Marion Cotillard. Her biggest Competitor-Viola Davis-The Help 

David's Pick- "Viola Davis"- This is a two horse race. Everyone else is just there for the ride as they say. Most have noted that Meryl Streep and Viola Davis are neck and neck, but the bottom line is that Davis picked up the prestigious SAG award for best actress and the majority of the precursors. "The Help" was highly regarded while "The Iron Lady"... not so much. Streep might have the Globe and BAFTA, but only one of those two is really of importance (it's not the Globes). Streep has already won a couple and is a lock to be nominated any time she shows up on screen, so many voters might try and give Davis the benefit of the doubt due to Streep's past victories. Of course this could go the other way and Streep might win just because she's... well Meryl Streep. Obviously the biggest competitor is Meryl Streep. 
Best Actor
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Francisco's Pick- Jean Dujardin-After surprising at the SAG and winning the BAFTA, Dujardin will most likely win the award.  His biggest Competitor-George Clooney-The Descendants 
David's Pick- Jean Dujardin- Gary Oldman SHOULD win. The snubbed Michael Fassbender was the best performance in my eyes by far, but Oldman follows close behind.  DuJardin and Bichir slot in right after, but it is the Frenchman who never says one word who is practically a lock. It seemed early in the race that Mr. Clooney would receive his second Oscar (2005 "Syriana"), but a surprising SAG victory and an ensuing BAFTA win have made this race as anti-climatic as the Best Picture race. Of course, I believe this is award is fully merited as DuJardin's performance embraces a wide range of human experience that is both touching and awe-inspiring. Biggest Competitor is George Clooney who looked to have this award in the bag (he could still pull a surprise), but DuJardin's novelty (like Davis), his virtuosic turn, and "The Artist's" popularity make this DuJardin's award to lose. 

Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Artist

Francisco's Pick-Octavia Spencer-No other actress has won the SAG, Golden Globe, BAFTA and BFCA.

David's Pick- Octavia Spencer- I must read like a broken record at this point, basically following my brother's last few picks. But the bottom line is that the precursors don't lie. Spencer is 105% guaranteed to win this award. No one else has a chance. In fact, there is no Closest competitor nonsense here. 
Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Francisco's Pick-Christopher Plummer-He's swept the awards circuit and the only other actor who had a chance of winning isn't even nominated.

David's Pick- Christopher Plummer- Another identical prediction (yes that's how predictable these awards are). However, Max von Sydow is a likely runner-up. Why? The Oscar often tries to give every Best Picture a win of some sort. This might be the only chance that "Extremely Close and Incredibly Loud" has at any award. 

Best Director
Michel Hazanivicus, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Francisco's Pick-Michel Hazanavicius-He's swept every award  like Plummer and Spencer and with the DGA award, no other director has a chance.
David's Pick- Michael Hazanavicius- All of the above. Though I personally would give it to Malick or Scorsese before I gave it Hazanavicius. 

Best Original Screenplay
Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo, Bridesmaids
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Francisco's Pick-Michel Hazanavicius-The Artist-The award is difficult to predict  especially because it wasn't nominated for the WGA but The Artist being the front runner for the Oscar, is mostly to win a screenplay award. Its biggest competitor-Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris

David's Pick- Woody Allen- Midnight in Paris- Finally something different. I can go with the "every best picture needs to win something" excuse , but Woody Allen has won a few precursors (the WGA, Golden Globe) that Hazanavicius hasn't. If Allen doesn't win, then "The Artist" wins this easily. 

Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash,The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
George Clooney, Beau Willimon and Grant Heslov, The Ides of March
Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Francisco's Pick-Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash-The Descendants-Even though it did not win the BAFTA, The Descendants has virtually won every single critics award. With a WGA award The Descendants is most likely to win its only award in this category. Its biggest competitor-Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

David's Pick- The Descendants- What my brother said... Tinker Tailor could pull an upset, hopefully, but no best picture nomination, no chance
Best Foreign Feature
In Darkness
Monsier Lazhar
In Separation

Francisco's Pick-A Separation-I am sure it will win the award but after losing the BAFTA and with how unpredictable this category is, A Separation could easily lose. Its biggest competitor-In Darkness 

David's Pick- "In Darkness"- Like every foreign film frontrunner in recent times (think "Pan's Labrynth", "The White Ribbon," "The Class," "Paradise Now", etc.) I think the same fate will befall international success "A Separation." "In Darkness" is the best known film in the category, but it surely would not surprise me to see another one of these films pull it out.  
Best Animated Feature
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots

Francisco's Pick-Rango-Winning All Critics awards and with TINTIN out of the race, it looks like a lock to win the award. Biggest Competitor-Chico and Rita

David's Pick- Rango- Pixar's award is not going to Pixar this year. Tintin would have been the frontrunner, but it is no where to be found, so Rango, the other big winner in the precursors is going win this easily. 
Art Direction
The Artist  
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Francisco's Pick-Hugo-It's won every single Art Direction award making it a lock as well. It's biggest competitor-The Artist

David's Pick- What do you think? (Winner of every Art Direction award, and unfortunately the only award it will likely win...)
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Francisco's Pick-The Tree of Life-The award has been swept by this film and having been nominated for Best Picture, The Tree of Life seems like a lock to win. Biggest Competitor-The Artist

David's Pick- "The Tree of Life"- What Fran said, AND... the only award this film will win... unfortunately. It deserves better, but at least it's spectacular visuals will get recognition. 
Costume Design
The Artist
Jane Eyre

Francisco's Pick-The Artist-Bridges has also swept but he did not win the costume designers guild. However with The Artist being the favorite, Bridges looks promising. Biggest Competitor-Hugo
David's Pick- W.E.- It won the Costume Guild. Otherwise "The Artist" gets another one. 

Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Francisco's Pick-Pina-This a wild card pick because none of these documentaries won any precursors. As a result, I'm going with the most popular and critically lauded film.

David's Pick: No Idea. Pina seems like the obvious one, but this one is impossible to prognosticate. Maybe the weather man has a better idea. 

Film Editing
Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Kevin Tent, The Descendants
Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo
Christopher Tellefsen, Moneyball

Francisco's Pick-The Artist-This is yet another wild card pick because the award could easily go to The Descendants after winning the EDDIE. However with The Artist being the favorite, I'm picking it for the Editing award. Biggest competitor-The Descendants
David's Pick: "The Artist"- Descendants won the EDDIE, but I'm also going to go with the Best Picture frontrunner as the winner of this award. 

Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle, Albert Nobbs
Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland, The Iron Lady
Francisco's Pick-The Iron Lady-If this award is given to this film then Meryl Streep will most likely win the award. I say this because after 2007 with La Vie en Rose, the same thing will most likely occur. Its biggest competitor-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
David's Pick: Harry Potter- They're bound to give this one something. It's only other nominations are locks for other films, so I see Harry Potter walking away with at least one. 

Music (Original Score)
John Williams, The Adventures of Tintin
Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Howard Shore, Hugo
Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
John Williams, War Horse

Francisco's Pick-The Artist-Ludovic Bource is a lock after sweeping all the awards. Its biggest competitor-John Williams-War Horse

David's Pick: Hugo- This is probably a long shot considering the love of  "The Artist's" score, but it is not really an original score (it includes music from Vertigo). Hugo should win. 
Music (Original Song)
"Man or Muppet" from The Muppets, Bret McKenzie
"Real in Rio" from Rio, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett

Francisco's Pick-Man or Muppet-The Muppets-The Muppets is the clear winner. It won all the song awards and was the critics favorite.  

David's Pick: Muppets- They had about 60 songs in consideration and they decided to go with 2 nominations. Joke. Everyone wants the Muppets to win and the Oscars won't disappoint their fans. 
Sound Editing
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Francisco's Pick-War Horse-The Sound categories are unpredictable but with a best picture nomination War Horse is bound to win at least one award. Its biggest competitor-Hugo

David's Pick- "Transformers"- Big budget special effects extravaganza will get something. This is the award it wins. 
Sound Mixing
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Francisco's Pick-Hugo-Once again I'm going by the guilds so anything could happen especially with how unpredictable these awards are. Biggest competitor-War Horse
David's Pick- "War Horse"- They have to give Spielberg's film something. Why not this? Otherwise Hugo? Or dare I say Transformers again?

Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Francisco's Pick-Rise of the Planet of the Apes-The film has the best visual effects of the year and won virtually every single effects award. However having only one nomination is a bad sign especially with Hugo being in this category. Biggest competitor-Hugo

David's Pick- Rise of the Planet of the Apes- Andy Serkis deserved a supporting actor award. At least the visual effects will get some recognition. It would shock me if this film didn't win considering the precursors sweep it has had. 

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